Quick access
Pre-Seed Investor Report
TL;DR
Surface Value.
Trade your atoms, bits and time.
What 8 billion individuals collectively own, know and can do dwarfs the inventory of any retailer | yet almost none of it is visible to the market.
Social media surfaced who you are | your connections, your personality, your stories. But no platform captures the full graph of what people could trade with each other. Selling is still a 60-minute chore. Shack is building a unified network that lets anyone surface the value of their possessions | physical goods today, digital goods and services tomorrow | and trade them directly, globally, in seconds.
We started where the market is largest: physical recommerce, growing ~15% annually (Fact.MR) with additional tailwinds in any downturn | Vinted was founded in 2008 and grew through the financial crisis as consumers sold for liquidity and bought secondhand to preserve it. Most incumbents were built pre-AI, pre-mobile, for one vertical (Vinted: fashion) or turned largely B2C (eBay). Shack is pure horizontal C2C, AI-native, and live across four geographies | Germany, Switzerland, Austria & the US | capturing selling intent in unlimited categories under one application layer.
AI Moat
The network, not the code
AI commoditizes software. The harder asset to build is a verified supply network. Three layers compound:
- ◆Supply graph: what 11k real people own, where, at what price. Decentralized, proprietary, no API to copy.
- ◆Stack: AI-native across 11 touchpoints (4 live, 1 beta, 6 in development). Incumbents are retrofitting AI onto legacy stacks.
- ◆Network: acquirers paid $0.7–1.6B for comparable supply graphs (Depop, Poshmark, Wallapop).
De-risked
- ✓Unique supply: activation 35.9% (vs Poshmark 31% at IPO)
- ✓Market replication: DE overtook CH in 4 mo
- ✓GTM: $2–3 CPI (benchmark $6–12)
- ✓Horizontal: 4 markets, US & EU compliant
- ✓Efficiency: ~$730k total spend → 94k downloads, $10 cost/listing
- ✓User sentiment: 928 ratings, 4.4★ App Store average
Open Risks
Fundraising → network density
The full global vision requires $1B+ in growth capital. $1M gets us to the next milestone | DE density | not the finish line. Without it, downstream metrics don't inflect:
- △Demand (1.9 bids/auction, needs 3–5×)
- △Retention (W4 ~5–6%, density-dependent)
- △Revenue model unproven at scale
- △LTV:CAC underwater (0.03× today)
Structural
- △Key-man risk | solo founder, team expansion needed
- △Platform dependency | iOS-only, 100% App Store
- △New entrant replicating model
Investment Thesis
Why Now
Cross-border peer-to-peer commerce has been structurally impractical until now. It requires five infrastructure rails operating simultaneously at global scale. As of 2026, all five are live.
1. Global Identity
Cryptographic identity is now default. Apple ID alone covers 2.2B+ active devices with biometric auth and device-bound keys. Layered on top: portable social graphs (LinkedIn, Instagram, X) that make reputation legible across borders. A seller in Munich and a buyer in Madrid can now establish trust programmatically | no intermediary, no delay, near-zero cost.
2. Global Communication
AI-powered translation and multimodal messaging let a buyer and seller who share no language negotiate and close | across borders, in a single session. The marginal cost of communication between any two people on earth is effectively zero. Language and geography are no longer barriers to peer-to-peer commerce.
3. Global Payments
Stablecoin market cap crossed $306B in 2025 (+49% YoY) with $33T in annual transfer volume (+72% YoY). Visa launched USDC settlement in the U.S., Stripe acquired stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1B and is building a payments-native blockchain with Visa and Shopify on its testnet. PayPal (434M users) issued PYUSD | now $3.9B market cap, live in 70+ markets. Apple Pay reaches 660M+ users across 95 countries. Cross-border P2P rails | Revolut (40M users), Wise (16M+), Venmo (95M U.S.) | have normalized instant multi-currency settlement. The result: payment between any two parties | any currency pair, any country | is approaching real-time at near-zero cost.
4. Global Logistics
API-first shipping infrastructure now handles cross-border label generation, customs paperwork, real-time tracking and returns in a single integration. Autonomous logistics | robotic sortation, drone last-mile, autonomous line-haul | is entering production and will push unit costs down structurally over the next decade. Near-term, carriers are already subsidizing doorstep pick-up to increase vehicle utilization | making collection free or near-free for sellers. Moving a physical item across borders is becoming as programmable as routing a packet.
5. Camera-Native Verification
Every smartphone is now a verification device. High-resolution photo capture, real-time video and AI-driven data augmentation | condition scoring, authenticity checks, auto-generated descriptions | provide frictionless visual verification at the point of listing. What once required expert appraisal or in-person inspection can now happen in seconds, from any device, anywhere. This is the layer that makes remote P2P trade in high-value goods feel as safe as buying from a retailer.
The Result
For the first time, every category of individual value | atoms (physical goods), bits (digital goods) and time (services) | can move between any two people on earth: identity-verified, settled and delivered, without either party relying on a legacy institution.
The Opportunity
What 8 billion individuals collectively own, know and can do dwarfs the inventory of any retailer | yet almost none of it is visible to the market. No platform today captures the full graph of what people could trade with each other.
The Shift
The internet's first era connected people to information. The next connects people to ownership | a network where every node is both buyer and seller, and the protocol layer handles identity, price discovery and fulfilment. Shack is being built to sit at the centre of that network.
Why Atoms First
We start where the TAM is largest and the behaviour is proven: physical recommerce, a market growing ~15% annually with counter-cyclical tailwinds | consumers sell for liquidity in downturns and buy secondhand to preserve it. Atoms are the hardest category (trust, shipping, condition) | solve atoms and bits and time become easier layers to add, not harder.
The Supply Thesis
In recommerce there are two kinds of supply. Professional inventory (resellers, dropshippers) can be API-imported and is predominantly commoditized. Private supply | a real person photographing their own valuable goods | requires activating intent and making the process so fast that someone follows through.
Recent M&A has priced these supply engines: eBay acquired Depop for $1.2B (2026), Naver paid $1.2B for Poshmark (2022) and $711M for Wallapop (2026). Each deal bought an accumulated user base at $10–$90 per private listing. The investment case here is not an installed base. It is the supply-creation engine itself.
Thesis
Shack is building an AI-native C2C marketplace. Listings are AI-generated in one tap, prices are discovered via live auctions, and users are Apple-verified. No fees, no professional sellers, designed to reduce friction at every step.
The Ask
$1M pre-seed on $5M pre-money ($6M post). Priced equity round. 12-month runway with milestone-gated spend targeting 75k MAU and 90k live auctions, primarily in Germany — the most capital-efficient market. Exploring business angels, family offices, VCs, and crowdfunding options.
The Investment Thesis
Shack is the supply-creation engine | an AI-driven system where cost per listing in DE dropped from $24 to $6 during cold-start compression, now at $10 blended. At $2–3 CPI, unit economics already sit within acquirer benchmarks ($10–$90/listing). As density grows, organic compounds and blended cost compresses further. 100% private supply, zero professional sellers, horizontal across categories, portable across 4 countries.
What Acquirers Bought
Depop, Wallapop, and Poshmark are accumulated supply pools | built over 10–15 years, mixed with professional sellers who inflate listing counts. eBay and Naver paid billions for the installed base, not the creation mechanism. Their listing counts include 30–80% professional inventory.
Supply Costs
Cost per Private Listing · Benchmark
Acquirer cost per private listing at transaction
Cost per Private Listing
Shack Engine · 100% private · zero pro sellers
Cost per listing = mkt spend ÷ new listings. At $2–3 CPI with zero organic, unit economics already work. Organic is upside, not a requirement.
Cost per Listing Trajectory
Actual + projected · USD
Why Shack Wins
The market is ready. Five rails are live. Why does Shack capture this opportunity?
The Supply Engine
AI listing in <10 seconds | one photo, one tap. 35.9% lister activation (vs Poshmark 31% at IPO Year 5). Listing retention: 7.9% → 70.7% in 10 months. 100% private supply, zero professional sellers, horizontal across all categories from day one. Live in 4 countries on a single codebase | DE overtook CH in 4 months. 18,773 live auctions today.
The Moat
AI commoditizes software. The harder asset is a verified supply network. Shack's graph | what 11k real people own, where, at what price | is decentralized, proprietary and has no API to copy. The AI stack spans 11 touchpoints (4 live, 1 beta, 6 in development) while incumbents retrofit AI onto legacy stacks. Acquirers paid $0.7–1.6B for comparable graphs (Depop, Poshmark, Wallapop) built over 10–15 years.
The Founder
10 years as a marketplace operator. Former CCO at Ricardo (dominant Swiss C2C | CHF 4.5B IPO via General Atlantic/SMG), led the supply side. Built Shack with $730k total spend | 94k downloads, 4 countries, 4.4★ App Store, #1 iOS Shopping in Switzerland. Zero fixed payroll | every team member is a shareholder, aligned to outcome not hours. Variable burn means every dollar goes to product or acquisition.
Precedent: Networks Over Profitability
Take-rate marketplaces are inherently low-margin | the fee covers transaction friction (payments, disputes, logistics) and compresses as competition grows. Depop: never profitable, £40M operating loss in 2024. Poshmark: $44M net loss, acquired for $1.2B. Even Vinted, the first major C2C to reach profitability (€77M net profit in 2024), did so by charging 0% seller fees and monetizing through buyer protection fees and promoted listings.
The highest-margin businesses in tech are advertising networks | Google (58% operating margin), Meta (42%). They monetize attention and intent, not transactions. A C2C marketplace with millions of high-intent sellers is a natural advertising surface: sellers pay to promote listings, brands pay for placement next to purchase intent. Shack charges 0% fees to maximize supply, then monetizes the attention that supply generates | ads-first, not take-rate-first.
Sources eBay/Depop · Naver/Wallapop · Naver/Poshmark · Vinted · Shack Backend · Feb 2026
Team
Founders
Shack is built by a small, senior team of operators and engineers. No fixed payroll, no overhead. Every team member is a shareholder | aligned to outcome, not hours. An employee is a time-based contractor. A shareholder is tied to the result. Compliant under Swiss law.
Julius Ilg · Founder & CEO
Switzerland, Zug · German
Full-stack founder · Strategist · Builder · Marketeer
10 years B2C/C2C marketplace operator. Former CCO at Ricardo (dominant Swiss C2C platform, CHF 4.5B IPO via General Atlantic/SMG). Led supply side. Former Category Manager at Wayfair.
SwiftUI engineer. Mentored 2y+ by Ben & David; co-built the Shack iOS app.
Former CCO at Ricardo and Category Manager at Wayfair. Now building a mobile-first alternative.
Ben Gottlieb
Founding Mobile Engineer · USA, Chicago
Iteration velocity
& product craftsmanship
30+ years mobile experience: Newton → Palm → iOS. Shipped consumer products across multiple hardware generations. Built systems for Fortune 500 companies.
David Scheutz
Founding Full-Stack Engineer · Colombia, Bogotá · Austrian
Architectural stability
& reliability
10+ years blockchain & mobile engineering across sensitive, high-trust systems. Supported 7 startups from idea to launch | 5 still active today.
Lena Wilke
Founding Identity Architect · Germany, Berlin
Brand, UX/UI
& storytelling
10+ years brand and UX/UI design. Designed for multiple startups, including several that raised $20M+.
What This Team Has Shipped
A live marketplace in 4 countries. 41,366 listings. App Store #1 in Switzerland. $731k total spend | fully variable cost structure, all capital allocated to product, acquisition and compliance. Built by a small founding team with deep mobile experience (30+ years combined) and marketplace operator knowledge.
Next: team expansion to build out global infrastructure. Already receiving inbound from experienced engineers (including Android) who want to join.
Advisors
Anthony Vaslin
Senior Advisor · Strategy, Marketplaces & Growth · Zurich
Former Head of Europe M&A at Naspers (Prosus) | covering classifieds and marketplaces across Western Europe. Seen OLX, Leboncoin, and peers at scale. 12 years TMT & Retail M&A advisory at Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas.
Isaac Bougherab
Advisor · Risk, Compliance & Regulatory · Geneva
3+ years Swiss finance (Pictet & KPMG) | fund supervision, regulatory risk, compliance. Master's in Corporate Finance, HEC Lausanne. Ensures Shack AG is structured for institutional investment.
Lean Operating Model
Vinted cut overhead in year 8 to reach profitability. Shack is designed around this principle from day one.
Sources Decentralized · task-first · zero employees · LEXR Law Switzerland
Vision
Surface Value.
Trade your atoms, bits and time.
Social media made it effortless to share who you are | your connections, your personality, your stories. But what people own and what they'd sell remains largely invisible. Selling is still a 60-minute chore. Shack is building the network that lets anyone surface the value of their possessions | physical goods today, digital goods and services tomorrow | and trade them directly, globally, in seconds.
Autonomous
60 min of friction → AI handles everything
Create Listing
~15 min
AI Listing: 1 tap · <10 sec
LIVEBuyer Finds You
~5 min
Shack GPT: intent-aware search
BETAAgree on Price
~10 min
Bid Engine: codified price discovery
LIVEFulfillment
~30 min
AI Shipping: smart recommendation
2026Timeline
ATOMS
2026
Physical goods · Germany-first · 75k MAU · Seed Q4 2026 – Q1 2027
$1M pre-seed · Seed Q4 2026 – Q1 2027
BITS
2027
Android · Digital goods · EU + US · $1M+ ARR · 500k MAU
Series A · physical + digital C2C
TIME
2028+
Web platform · Global · Services · 5M+ MAU
Series B · global platform
Traction
Market Replication
Switzerland launched November 2024. Germany launched October 2025, 11 months later. Within 4 months DE overtook CH in both monthly downloads and active users, with zero existing organic community. The same paid playbook produced faster results in a 10× larger market. Austria added organically. US soft launched February 2026 to enable testing of global roll-out. Focus remains on Germany.
Cumulative Downloads
App Store Connect · All markets
🇩🇪 DE Downloads · Cumulative
App Store Connect · Oct 2025 launch
🇩🇪 DE Auctions · Cumulative
Total auctions created · Oct 2025 launch
Note on CH: Paid acquisition in Switzerland was paused at DE launch (Oct 2025) to concentrate budget on the 10× larger German market. CH downloads dropped as a result, but retained users remain active | CH still holds 68% of live auctions (12,802 of 18,773). This was a deliberate resource allocation decision, not a market signal.
CH vs DE
🇨🇭 CH Downloads · M1–M4
387
Nov 24 – Feb 25 · pre-paid, organic only
🇩🇪 DE Downloads · M1–M4
25,815
67× CH at same stage · paid
🇨🇭 CH Listings · M1–M4
305
Nov 24 – Feb 25 · 28 → 144 monthly listings
🇩🇪 DE Listings · M1–M4
6,970
23× CH at same stage · 699 → 2,311 monthly
iOS App Store Rankings · Highest Achieved
Top Spot
🇨🇭 CH All Free Apps
#43
🇩🇪 DE Shopping
#16
🇦🇹 AT Shopping
Replication Thesis
CH proved the model. DE is replicating it at lower CPI.
Switzerland: #1 iOS Shopping (Apr 2025), 61k downloads, 4.4k MAU (paused spend Oct 2025). Germany: launched Oct 2025, already 34k downloads, 10.3k MAU at $2–3 CPI vs CH peak of $9.50. Playbook replicable across geographies | same AI listing tool, same auction mechanics, 10× the addressable population.
Sources App Store Connect · Firebase · Shack Backend · Nov 2024 – Feb 2026
Spend
Spend Summary
$731k total spend Apr to Feb, $434k pure marketing. CH launched at $1.58 CPI (PR-driven). Aug–Oct was the AuctionShack → Shack rebrand. Germany launched Oct 2025. Cold-start at $10.11 CPI dropped to $2.09 in Dec, $3.19 in Jan, and $2.52 in Feb. The rebrand learnings translated directly into DE efficiency.
DE CPI
DE Steady-State CPI
$2–$3
Dec $2.09 · Jan $3.19 · Feb $2.52
Industry Benchmark
$6–$12+
iOS Shopping · early-stage, no brand
$500k clean marketing budget post-raise → 250k–350k installs, concentrated in Germany. Algorithm gets more signal at scale | CPI improves with volume.
Spend Breakdown
Monthly Spend vs Cumulative Downloads
USD · App Store Connect
Spend KPIs
Sources Internal finance · USD equivalent · Apr 2025 – Feb 2026
Product-Market Fit
Categories & GMV
Vertical marketplaces lock into one category | Depop is ~100% fashion, Vinted is ~90% clothing. Shack is horizontal by design: no single category exceeds 31%. This means a wider acquisition funnel and higher average listing value. Vertical platforms have found it structurally difficult to expand beyond their core category.
Category Distribution
% of live auctions
Shack vs Vertical Platforms
Fashion share of total listings
Depop
~100%
Vinted
~90%
Shack
~30%
Wider funnel | every household has items across categories.
Higher value | avg CHF 605/listing vs fashion-only ~CHF 25–40. Vehicles avg CHF 4,200.
Defensible | going horizontal means rebuilding listing flow, logistics, and brand identity.
Lister Activation
Lister Activation Funnel
33% install → verify · industry avg ~20–25%
vs Poshmark 31% at IPO (Year 5)
Repeat listing behaviour already forming · no retention incentives yet
Lister Activation · Marketplace Benchmarks
| Platform · Stage | % Listed | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shack · Year 1 | 35.9% | 31,482 verified users | Backend · all-time |
| Poshmark · Year 5 (IPO) | ~31% | 32M registered users | S-1 · SEC · 2021 |
| Vinted · pre-2016 (with fees) | Stagnated | Fee barrier → listings dried up | TechCrunch · 2019 |
| Vinted · post-2016 (fee-free) | Dramatic rebound | Removed listing fees → 4× growth | TechCrunch · 2019 |
| Etsy · mature (2023) | ~8% | 7.5M sellers / 95M buyers | Q4 2023 Earnings |
Fee-free from launch. 35.9% lister activation in Year 1.
Vinted's CEO credited removing listing fees in 2016 as their biggest growth lever | 4× growth. Shack launched this way on day one. AI listing (1 tap, <10 sec) accelerates supply creation.
This ties directly to the supply thesis: lister activation is the single biggest lever on cost per private listing. At 35.9%, more than a third of verified users become suppliers | every percentage point higher compresses the cost to create private inventory, pushing Shack deeper into acquirer-benchmark territory ($10–$90 per listing) without additional spend.
Seller Segments
Power (10+ listings or 3+ months active) · Casual (2–9 listings, <3 months) · One-and-Done (1 listing)
Power Sellers
Casual Sellers
One-and-Done
Sources Backend export · 41,366 listings · keyword classification · Feb 2026
Growth
MAU Growth
MAU grew from 9,821 in April 2025 to 15,767 in February 2026 — 1.6× in 10 months. Germany alone went from zero to 10,881 MAU in four months after its October 2025 launch, now representing the majority of the user base.
🇩🇪 DE MAU — Growth & Post-Raise Projection
Oct 2025 launch → 11k MAU in 4 months → projected 70k with raise
🇩🇪 Germany MAU / WAU / DAU · Launch Zoom
Firebase · bi-weekly · Nov 2025 – Feb 2026
Seasonality context: The Dec–Jan dip reflects typical holiday seasonality (Christmas, winter break) seen across C2C marketplaces. Users list less during holidays and re-engage in the new year. The Feb rebound confirms the pattern. DE launch (Oct 2025) drove a step-change in MAU; the steepening post-DE curve reflects the contribution of a 10× larger market.
Engagement
L30D Rolling Active Users
Weekly · Firebase
CH vs DE MAU
Firebase · monthly
C2C Marketplace Norms
C2C marketplaces are inherently low-frequency. Users show up when they have something to sell or find something to buy. Unlike social apps (50%+ DAU/MAU), engagement is intermittent by design.
At pre-seed, MAU slope and WAU density are the leading indicators (a16z). One-third of Shack's user base returns every week.
a16z Marketplace Benchmarks · Statsig · HSBC Innovation Banking
Retention
Weekly Cohort Retention · CH vs DE
Firebase Analytics · Jan–Feb 2026 · averaged across cohorts
Weekly cohort breakdown tables are in the Appendix.
Weekly cohorts (Firebase) measure users who return within a 7-day window, which better reflects C2C browsing behaviour (users check back when new listings appear, not daily). W4 (≈D28) at 5–6% | CH shows higher retention as marketing stopped and core users remain sticky; DE retention strengthens as density grows. Both curves flatten after W5 at ~3–5%, suggesting a stable retained core is forming.
Retention correlates with liquidity.
Users tell us directly: “Love the app, just needs more users” | confirmed across App Store ratings. C2C retention is structurally different from B2C. Every listing comes from an individual person. Supply density has to be earned one user at a time, which means early retention is inherently worse than B2C benchmarks.
At 18k live auctions, most users don't yet find what they want on first visit. CH retention was highest during peak MAU months when density was strongest. Vinted saw the same pattern.
The raise is designed to push past the density threshold in Germany. At 75k MAU, discovery accelerates, bids compound, and retention scales with inventory | not features.
Listing Retention
Listing Retention by Cohort
% of cohort listings still live
Listing Survival by Age
% still live · decay curve
Each new cohort retains better than the last.
Early cohorts (Apr 2025) required manual relisting after each unsuccessful auction. We switched to opt-out: listings auto-renew unless the seller deletes them or the item sells. The Feb 2026 cohort now keeps 70.7% of listings live, up from 7.9% in April. High retention increases network density | listings that stay live attract more views and bids. The decay curve reflects natural lifecycle: sellers actively manage their supply by deleting sold items or listings they no longer want.
Sources App Store Connect · Firebase Analytics · Jan 2025 – Feb 2026
Supply & Demand
Supply Metrics
41,366 auctions from 11,304 unique listers. 18,773 live right now (12,802 CH · 5,061 DE · 744 AT · 166 US). Supply is the hardest side of any C2C marketplace | unique cannot be API-imported, every listing requires a real person.
Cumulative Bids
Monthly new bids (bars) · cumulative (line)
By Market
Live Auctions by Market
Unique Listers
11,304
Of 31,482 verified · 35.9% activation
Supply Velocity
3.7×
Avg listings per active lister
AI listing (1 tap, <10 sec) accelerates supply. Push notifications re-engage dormant listers.
Demand Signal
Demand is early but directionally strong. 997 unique bidders have placed 3,577 bids, producing 1,725 completed orders | driven organically by seller activity and word-of-mouth, with no dedicated buyer acquisition spend.
Demand Forecast · Bids + Orders
Monthly actuals + 12-month post-raise projection (M1–M12)
Demand compounds with density.
Today each category has limited inventory, reducing the chances of matching buying intent with supply. As listings deepen, more searches return relevant results, more auctions attract competing bids, and conversion compounds with inventory rather than marketing spend.
Near-term expectation: At 50k+ live auctions, category density reaches a threshold where browse-to-bid conversion should accelerate materially. The $1M raise is designed to push past this inflection point in Germany, where capital efficiency is highest.
Sources Shack Backend · all-time · Mar 2 2026
Competition
Feature Comparison
The DACH C2C market is dominated by legacy platforms built before smartphones. eBay and Kleinanzeigen require email signup, allow professional sellers, and charge fees. Shack is building toward an AI-native marketplace designed to handle the entire transaction lifecycle end-to-end.
| Platform | Market | 0% Fees | Apple SSO | AI Stack | Auction | C2C Only | Map | All Cat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shack | DACH + US | YES | YES | 11 layers | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| eBay | Global | — | YES | ~ (3 layers) | ~ | — | — | YES |
| Kleinanzeigen | DE | ~ | — | ~ (2 layers) | — | — | ~ | YES |
| Vinted | EU | YES | YES | — | — | — | — | — |
| Etsy | Global | — | YES | ~ | — | — | — | ~ |
| FB Marketplace | Global | ~ | — | — | — | — | YES | YES |
AI Stack
Legacy platforms bolt AI onto one step of an otherwise manual flow. Shack is AI-native across the entire transaction lifecycle | 4 layers live, 1 in beta, 6 more in development.
1 tap · <10 sec. Photo → title, description, category → live auction.
Market-based suggestion based on item recognition and comparable listings.
Every listing scanned. Restricted item detection, policy enforcement, fraud signals.
Intent-aware search. "Cool gift for my parents" → AI surfaces results across categories.
Set max, AI bids for you. No monitoring, no sniping, no missed auctions.
Trending auctions ranked by AI. Next: learn what you browse, bid, buy. Surface relevant listings before you search.
Real-time listing translation across DE, CH, AT, US. One marketplace, no language barrier.
Community chat safety. Spam, toxicity, fraud | all caught automatically.
Smart recommendation: price estimation, carrier comparison, best-rate suggestion.
Evidence review, fair outcome proposals, instant mediation. No ticket queue.
Contextual help, how-to guidance, account issues. Zero headcount CS.
Sources Public filings · App Store reviews · product research · Feb 2026
Revenue
Monetisation Strategy
Shack is prioritizing growth of the network asset at the expense of monetization. Zero fees accelerate supply activation and trust | the same approach that preceded Vinted's growth inflection.
IAP revenue comes from optional tools: ID verification, auction ads, Hoist, and gamification. At scale, brand ads (sponsored placements from external advertisers) unlock a high-margin revenue layer on top of existing user-facing tools.
The Shack Association raised $230K through community token sales | $120K accessible by Shack AG via formal SLA.
IAP Revenue
IAP Revenue & Transactions
Cumulative · RevenueCat
Business Model
Revenue Flywheel
Liquidity unlocks monetisation. More users → more auctions → more competition per listing → sellers pay to stand out. At 75k MAU, even 1% IAP conversion at $12 avg = $9k MRR from optional tools alone. Revenue grows with density, not pricing pressure.
Revenue Stack · Phased Rollout
Proven in CH · Ready to Repeat
CH IAP revenue grew steeply as marketplace density scaled | users paid for visibility once competition per listing made it worthwhile. DE is 10× the population at significantly lower CPIs, making it the right market to concentrate resources.
Indicative 2-Year Revenue Trajectory
Revenue scales with marketplace density. The projections below assume the $1M raise closes in Q2 2026 and density milestones are met on schedule.
30–50k MAU · IAP tools only · auction ads, Hoist, gamification
50–75k MAU · Featured listings launch · bidding competition drives IAP
75–120k MAU · Brand ads unlock · premium seller tools · path to Seed metrics
Estimates are directional, not commitments. Actual timing depends on density milestones, market conditions, and product execution.
Sources RevenueCat · IAP · Shack Association · Apr 2025 – Jan 2026
Press ↗
20 Minuten · Switzerland's Largest Daily
“While the neon design and features like the comic function emphasize the fun of bargain hunting, there's a serious mission behind the startup: to reduce throwaway culture and promote reuse.”
169 reader comments · inbound coverage
Handelszeitung · Swiss Business Daily
Feature coverage within days of US launch. Valentine's Day US launch tie-in.
Largest Swiss business newspaper · inbound · no PR budget
Startupticker.ch · Zuger Zeitung
“Back to simplicity: sell everyday items in just a few clicks.”
Startup ecosystem coverage · organic pick-up
Paid → Organic Flywheel
Ads are optimized for social sharing, not just installs | creative is designed for re-sharing across social feeds. Paid spend seeds organic distribution: users share Shack clips to Stories and feeds, extending the reach of each paid dollar through organic amplification.
Sources 20 Minuten · Handelszeitung · App Store · Instagram · X
Use of Funds
Cold Start
The conventional playbook is to start in one vertical, build liquidity, then expand. That works for dominating a vertical. But it consistently fails as a path to horizontal | tech, seller, regulation, and brand lock-in calcify around one category.
Why Category-First Fails
Tech lock-in | Vinted: 18 years, still ~90% fashion. Clothing-first UX, size filters, brand matching don't transfer.
Seller lock-in | Poshmark: seller base locked into fashion resale, never expanded horizontally → acquired $1.2B.
Regulation lock-in | Vestiaire built luxury auth and category-specific compliance | impossible to repurpose for electronics or furniture.
Brand lock-in | Shpock was “the boot sale app” | never escaped it. Depop: still 100% Gen Z fashion after acquisition. Wallapop: ~80% Spain-only after 12 years.
Each vertical creates structural debt. Horizontal expansion doesn't just require a second cold start | it requires a second product.
Shack: Geographic + Technical Vertical
Stay horizontal from day one | but constrain geography and platform to concentrate density.
Geographic focus | launch in CH, prove model, expand to DE. Already live in 4 countries. Expansion is a deployment decision, not a product rebuild.
Technical focus | iOS only (36–41% market share in Germany). One platform = faster iteration, tighter UX. iOS users skew toward higher-value items for resale | stronger unit economics per listing. Android and web come after iOS is hitting marginal limits
Horizontal from day one | brand, AI stack, and UX built for “anything”. No category pivot needed later.
Solve the cold start once per market, not once per category. Then expand geographically and technically.
GTM by platform + geography solves the horizontal cold start in a way that category verticals structurally cannot. “iOS users in Germany” is a precise, scalable ad audience with clean attribution | “people selling vintage instruments in Berlin” is not. By constraining on platform and geography instead of category, Shack gets sharp paid targeting, localised ASO, and country-level press hooks while keeping the entire marketplace horizontal from day one. One campaign acquires a guitar seller in Munich and a sneaker buyer in Hamburg into the same marketplace, the same brand, the same retention loop. Category-first marketplaces pay for each vertical separately | separate positioning, separate creative, separate unit economics. Shack pays once per geo, then deepens category coverage at near-zero incremental acquisition cost.
Seller-First Acquisition · Both Sides for the Price of One
~50%
sellers → buyers
~10%
buyers → sellers
5×
leverage asymmetry
Low
seller ad auction cost DE
In C2C marketplaces, sellers who build a track record naturally start buying to earn ratings and strengthen their seller profile. Every seller acquired is half a buyer for free. Seller-targeted ads in Germany face significantly less competition than buyer-side campaigns, where thousands of e-commerce brands bid for attention. This translates to lower media costs for reaching potential sellers. Combined with the seller-as-buyer flywheel, this creates favorable unit economics for a seller-first acquisition strategy in DE.
Phase 1 · Now
DACH · iOS
Main focus DE · prove liquidity
Phase 2 · Post-Seed
DACH · iOS + Android
Add Android, deepen density
Phase 3 · Series A
EU + US · All platforms
Expand geo + web
Phase 4 · Scale
Global
Full horizontal, all markets
Budget
The hardest problem in any marketplace is reaching supply-demand density | compounded in horizontal C2C where coverage is needed across thousands of categories. 3,577 bids have been placed and 1,725 orders completed. The demand signal exists, but at current density most searches return too few results. The $1M is sized to reach the next density milestone in Germany. Milestone-gated burn over 12 months ($1M raise + $200k existing cash). Spend ramps as channels are validated | allocation: ~50% marketing, ~35% infrastructure, ~15% buffer.
$60k/mo
Phase 1 · Validate
M1–M3 · $180k · Prove DE density at controlled spend
$100k/mo
Phase 2 · Scale
M4–M8 · $500k · Double down on validated channels
$130k/mo
Phase 3 · Expand
M9–M12 · $520k · Push toward seed KPIs
Seed Milestones
Liquidity Threshold · Seed Trigger
75k MAU · 90k live auctions · $50k IAP · iOS top spot DE Shopping → Seed prep begins. At this density, the average listing gets meaningful views and bids, search returns relevant results, and retention compounds with inventory instead of decaying.
Priorities
Growth Priorities · Post-Close
Product Priorities · Post-Close
Capital Efficiency
Median EU Pre-Seed (Carta 2025)
€1.8M
Shack raises 44% below median
Median Consumer AI Seed (2025)
$2.1M
AI marketplaces raise 2–3× more
Capital Efficiency vs Peers
| Platform · Stage | Raised | Users | $/User | Revenue | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shack · Pre-Seed Y1 | $1M | 94k | $10.64 | $6.6k | — |
| Depop · Seed Y1.5 (UK, 2012) | $2.5M | ~120k | $20.83 | $0 | $1.6B exit (Etsy) |
| Shpock · Seed Y1 (AT/DACH, 2012) | ~$2.5M | 120k | ~$20.83 | $0 | €200M acq (Adevinta) |
$1M is 44% below the EU pre-seed median. Depop and Shpock each spent ~$20/user with 2.5× the capital and zero revenue at that stage. Shack has generated $6.6k in IAP revenue at pre-seed.
Runway & Projections
Cash Runway · Without vs With $1M
| Without Raise | With $1M | |
|---|---|---|
| Starting Cash (Mar 26) | ~$200k | $1,200k |
| Monthly Burn | $30k | $60k–$130k (phased) |
| Runway | 6 months | 12 months |
| Reaches Seed KPIs | No | Month 8–10 |
| Cash at Seed Trigger | ~$20k | $260k–$520k |
Without raise: $30k/mo burn. Sustainable but insufficient to reach critical density. With $1M deployed over 12 months ($60k→$100k→$130k/mo phased ramp), each milestone unlocks the next spend tier as DE buyer-seller matching starts working across categories.
Cash Runway Projection
$k · monthly burn
MAU Projection
Target: 75k MAU at M12
Downloads at M12
~424k
vs ~118k without raise
MAU at M12
75k
vs 6.5k without raise
IAP Revenue at M12
$50k
vs ~$9k without raise
Path to Seed
Path to Seed: Month 8–10 post-close.
With $1M deployed over 12 months via milestone-gated ramp, Shack reaches seed KPIs (75k MAU, 90k live auctions, iOS #1 DE) by month 8–10. Cash remaining at seed trigger: $260k–$520k. This positions a $3–5M seed raise at 3–5× valuation step-up from pre-seed.
Sources Internal strategy & financial model · Feb 2026
Appendix
Horizontal Strategy
Why Category-First Fails for Horizontal
- Tech lock-in | Vinted live since 2008, 18 years, still ~90% fashion
- Seller lock-in | Poshmark seller base locked into fashion resale, never expanded horizontally → acquired $1.2B
- Brand lock-in | Depop acq by Etsy $1.6B then resold to eBay $1.2B
Shack's Approach: Geographic + Technical Vertical
- Geographic focus | launch in CH, prove model, expand to DE
- Technical focus | iOS only. One platform = faster iteration
- Horizontal from day one | brand, AI stack, UX built for “anything”
Gen Z
Shack Audience · TikTok
Gender: 50% F · 49% M · 1% other
CH 31.8% · DE 29.2% · AT 19.7%
48% under 35. 50/50 gender split. Horizontal, not fashion-skewed.
61% search used first before buying new. 49% sold a pre-owned item for the first time this year. Gen Z plans to spend 46% of apparel budget on secondhand.
Why Legacy Platforms Lose This Cohort
Shpock/Kleinanzeigen primary demographic: 45–54 (Similarweb 2025)
Shack's Design Approach
Mobile-first and visual. Bold identity, comic-style visuals, auction mechanics. Designed to feel fast and intuitive.
Autonomous simplicity. Photo → AI handles listing, compliance, buyer matching → live in 10 seconds. Matches UX expectations set by TikTok and Instagram.
Depop lesson: 90% of active users under 26. Shack takes a similar design-first approach but applies it horizontally.
Weekly Cohort Retention
Weekly cohorts (Firebase) measure users who return within a 7-day window, which better reflects C2C browsing behaviour. W4 (≈D28) at 5–6% | both curves flatten after W5 at ~3–5%, suggesting a stable retained core is forming.
🇨🇭 Weekly Cohort Retention · Switzerland
| Cohort | Users | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5–10 | 130 | 99.2% | 16.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 3.8% |
| Jan 11–17 | 178 | 98.3% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Jan 18–24 | 358 | 98.6% | 18.4% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | — |
| Jan 25–31 | 443 | 99.3% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | — | — |
| Feb 1–7 | 241 | 99.2% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 5.8% | — | — | — |
| Feb 8–14 | 181 | 99.4% | 16.6% | 9.9% | 7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Feb 15–21 | 153 | 100% | 15.0% | 7.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Feb 22–28 | 141 | 99.3% | 12.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
🇩🇪 Weekly Cohort Retention · Germany
| Cohort | Users | W0 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5–10 | 1,135 | 99.5% | 15.5% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Jan 11–17 | 1,461 | 99.1% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Jan 18–24 | 1,598 | 99.4% | 14.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.4% | — |
| Jan 25–31 | 2,537 | 99.6% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.7% | — | — |
| Feb 1–7 | 1,276 | 99.8% | 14.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.5% | — | — | — |
| Feb 8–14 | 991 | 99.6% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Feb 15–21 | 2,354 | 99.7% | 14.7% | 6.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Feb 22–28 | 2,418 | 99.8% | 13.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Monthly Data
| Month | Downloads | MAU | Mkt Spend | Total Spend | Cost/DL | Cost/Listing | IAP Rev | IAP Txns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | 0 |
| Dec 24 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | 0 |
| Jan 25 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | 0 |
| Feb 25 | 209 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | 0 |
| Mar 25 | 1,992 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | 0 |
| Apr 25 | 10,205 | 9,821 | $16,082 | $17,869 | $1.58 | $2.94 | $245 | 20 |
| May 25 | 6,767 | 10,198 | $14,917 | $26,686 | $2.20 | $5.31 | $111 | 21 |
| Jun 25 | 8,463 | 11,269 | $21,384 | $86,099 | $2.53 | $5.37 | $399 | 50 |
| Jul 25 | 11,186 | 13,881 | $34,797 | $53,256 | $3.11 | $8.43 | $1,280 | 120 |
| Aug 25 | 4,219 | 15,412 | $40,092 | $55,510 | $9.50 | $12.30 | $1,134 | 84 |
| Sep 25 | 6,849 | 15,989 | $54,196 | $87,603 | $7.91 | $13.78 | $1,310 | 94 |
| Oct 25 | 5,022 | 12,453 | $79,106 | $114,821 | $15.75 | $23.95 | $1,331 | 85 |
| Nov 25 | 9,388 | 11,395 | $94,923 | $145,172 | $10.11 | $21.80 | $430 | 31 |
| Dec 25 | 9,529 | 11,824 | $19,884 | $41,013 | $2.09 | $6.06 | $157 | 10 |
| Jan 26 | 11,407 | 16,790 | $36,360 | $69,784 | $3.19 | $10.74 | $151 | 13 |
| Feb 26 | 9,017 | 15,767 | $22,682 | $32,839 | $2.52 | $9.63 | $116 | 10 |
| Total | 94,431 | — | $434K | $731K | $4.60 | $10.79 | $6,664 | 538 |
Cost note: Shack AG incorporated May 2025. Pre-incorporation spend (Nov 24 – Apr 25) funded personally by the founder via sole proprietorship. Cost reporting begins April 2025.
Monthly Downloads by Market
App Store Connect · stacked
Monthly Spend vs Cumulative Downloads
USD · App Store Connect
IAP Revenue & Transactions
Cumulative · RevenueCat
$SHACK Community Token
Issued by the Shack Association (Swiss non-profit), paired with JUP on Meteora. Total supply: 1B tokens, ~300M in circulation, 80% vesting through July 2026. The token confers no equity, governance, or rights in Shack AG. A formal SLA (LEXR Law) governs fund flows from Association to AG. $230K raised | $110K invested in token infra, community, artwork/character design, and market making; $120K accessible by Shack AG via SLA.
Price
$0.0036
Market Cap
$2.3M
Liquidity
$156K
Holders
2,405
FDV
$3.6M
DEX
Meteora
Pair Age
7 months
TOP HOLDERS
Contract: BHvPQ9dFAiZJUSYJFpEmdfMmgz48iLohyxyixBfZjups
Pair: SHACK / JUP · Pooled: 21.6M SHACK ($78K) + 519K JUP ($78K)
Audit: No issues · 24h volume: ~$1.4K · 24h txns: 37
Valuation
Three standard pre-seed valuation methods converge on $5M pre-money / $6M post-money. The raise targets $1M on $5M pre-money, implying ~16.7% dilution.
Method 1 · Berkus / Scorecard
Weights each factor against EU pre-seed median of $3M.
Method 2 · Comparable Transactions
European C2C marketplace early-stage rounds, inflation-adjusted.
Shack shows strong traction relative to comparable C2C marketplaces at pre-seed stage.
Method 3 · VC Method (Backward)
Consumer networks are valued on network density and brand, not revenue. Depop: never profitable, £40M loss in 2024 | still acquired for $1.2B. WhatsApp had ~$300M revenue, sold for $19B.
Consumer networks that achieve liquidity re-rate fast | Whatnot: $0 to $11.5B in ~5 years, Vinted: pre-seed to $5.4B. At $6M post-money, even the conservative scenario returns ~8× on pre-seed capital.
Investor Return at $5M Pre-Money
MOIC · assumes ~50% dilution through Seed + A
MOIC for a $1M pre-seed cheque at different exit outcomes. Assumes ~50% dilution through Seed + Series A. Exit values driven by network density, not revenue multiples.
Valuation Convergence
Deal Terms
Current Cap Table
Post-Seed Cap Table (Illustrative)
TAM / SAM / SOM
TAM · Total Addressable
$12.2B
DACH recommerce (2025). DE $9.2B · CH $1.5B · AT $1.1B. Growing 11–17% YoY.
SAM · Serviceable Addressable
~$4B
C2C-only segment. ~33% of DACH recommerce. All horizontal categories, mobile-first.
SOM · Serviceable Obtainable
~$40–80M
3-year capture. 500k MAU × $80–160 GMV/user/yr. 1–2% of SAM at Series A density.
Why DACH first: Switzerland is the most expensive C2C market per capita in Europe | high disposable income, high resale prices, high willingness to pay for convenience. Germany is 10× the population at lower CPI, making it the volume engine. Austria bridges both. Combined: 100M population, €115B e-commerce volume, 11–17% recommerce growth. Shack does not need to win globally | DACH alone supports a $100M+ outcome.
Blockchain
Blockchain gives Shack three structural advantages traditional infrastructure cannot provide: permissionless payments, collectible tokenisation, and a community memecoin as non-dilutive crowdfunding engine.
1. Permissionless Instant Payments
The Problem with Traditional P2P Payments
Cross-border friction | SEPA takes 1–2 days, costs vary, chargebacks are a headache for C2C.
Payment processor gatekeeping | Stripe/PayPal charge 2.9–3.5% + fixed fees. On a $15 used book, that's 20%+ eaten by infrastructure.
Currency conversion | DACH spans CHF and EUR. US adds USD. Every boundary adds cost and complexity.
No global standard | Twint in CH, Klarna in DE, Venmo in US. Each integration fragments the experience.
Why Stablecoins Solve This
Permissionless | no KYB, no merchant onboarding. Any user can send and receive value instantly.
Global by default | USDC/USDT work the same in Zurich, Berlin, Vienna, and New York. One integration, every market.
Near-zero fees | on L2 chains, a stablecoin transfer costs fractions of a cent. That $15 sale costs $0.001, not $0.50.
Programmable settlement | smart contracts enable trustless payment: funds release on buyer confirmation or timeout.
Global adoption is here. Stablecoins settled over $12 trillion on-chain in 2024 | more than Visa. Shack's approach: blockchain under the hood, familiar on the surface. Users see "Pay $15" → instant settlement → seller gets funds. The stablecoin rail is invisible infrastructure, not a feature.
2. Collectible Tokenisation · Trade Globally Without Shipping
Tokenising physical collectibles | trading cards, watches, sneakers | creates a digital certificate of ownership on-chain while the item stays in vault custody. Ownership transfers instantly, globally, 24/7. The item doesn't move. Only the title does.
Courtyard.io · $30M Series A
Tokenises physical trading cards. Items ship to Brink's vaults, get authenticated, NFT minted. 500k+ collectibles tokenised. $56M in sales volume in March 2025 alone. Backed by Forerunner, NEA, Y Combinator.
Collector Crypt · Solana-Native
Tokenises Pokémon and sports trading cards as pNFTs on Solana. Cards vaulted, tokens trade on Magic Eden. $70M+ revenue YTD. Leading Solana RWA trading card dApp.
3. Community Memecoin · Non-Dilutive Crowdfunding
$SHACK is a community memecoin | issued by the Shack Association (separate Swiss entity), not Shack AG | that serves three strategic functions traditional fundraising can't replicate.
Non-dilutive crowdfunding | $230K raised from 2,400+ holders. No equity given up, no cap table complexity.
Global brand seeding | 2,400+ holders across dozens of countries are organic brand ambassadors with skin in the game. The community seeds demand before Shack enters a geography.
In-app economy (planned) | first test: referral rewards. If validated, expands to listing boosts, seller incentives, and token-powered rewards.
Auctions
Most C2C marketplaces default to fixed-price listings with chat-based negotiation. Shack uses auctions as the primary model | not because the format is novel, but because it is structurally better for peer-to-peer commerce.
The Problem with Fixed Price + Chat
Pricing paralysis | sellers don't know what their stuff is worth. Overprice → sits. Underprice → feel cheated. Both kill retention.
Chat negotiation is broken | "Is this still available?" → lowball → counter → ghosting. Fewer than 1 in 5 chat negotiations convert.
No urgency | fixed-price listings sit indefinitely. No time pressure, no competition, no reason to act now.
Seller burden | manage every conversation, respond to every lowball. Most casual sellers list once and never come back.
Why Auctions Are Built for C2C
Market sets the price | sellers set a starting bid (or let AI suggest), the market decides. Removes the biggest friction: "How much should I charge?"
No chat, no negotiation | bidding replaces messaging. Buyer expresses interest with money, not words. Highest bid wins.
Built-in urgency + auto-renewal | 7-day cycles, auto-renew if unsold. Time pressure drives action.
Engagement loops | watching auctions, getting outbid, last-second bids — inherently engaging. Every auction is a mini-event.
AI Bidding — buyers set a max bid and walk away. AI bids incrementally on their behalf.
Whatnot · Auction Mechanics at Scale
Whatnot is B2C (sellers stream live), but the auction mechanics tell a clear story:
$11.5B
Valuation
$6B
GMV (2025)
95 min
Daily engagement
80%+
MoM retention
Whatnot validated that auctions drive superior engagement, conversion, and retention. Shack applies the same mechanic to C2C: asynchronous, AI-powered, no streaming, no performance. The auction mechanic delivers the same urgency, accessible to anyone.
Shack GPT
Traditional C2C search is keyword-based. Shack GPT understands intent. A search for "cool gift for my parents" surfaces items across categories | a vintage watch, a coffee machine, a framed print. The planned next step: proactive matchmaking — AI identifies the right buyer when a listing goes live.
Beta · Intent-Aware Search
Natural language, not keywords. Users search "cool gift for my parents" or "something vintage under 50" | AI surfaces contextually relevant results across all categories.
Planned · Proactive Matchmaking
1. Seller lists | one photo, AI generates listing in <10 sec.
2. Shack GPT scans buyer graph | cross-references search history, bid patterns, category affinity.
3. "We found a match" | matched buyers get a push notification.
4. Auction ignites | matched buyers bid, triggering urgency and AI autobidding.
Competitive Advantage
eBay | AI on listing, pricing suggestions, ad bidding. Still keyword-first for core search.
Kleinanzeigen | AI listing descriptions + ChatGPT conversational search. No AI pricing/bidding.
Vinted — keyword search + algorithmic feed. No intent understanding.
Shack GPT — intent-aware AI search (beta). Proactive matchmaking planned next.
CAC / LTV
Marketplace unit economics are non-linear. At low density, CAC is high and LTV is near zero. At scale, both curves invert: CAC trends toward zero as organic growth replaces paid acquisition, while LTV compounds as network effects unlock successive monetisation layers.
CAC · Trends Toward Zero at Scale
Today: $2–3 CPI in Germany. Paid UA across multiple channels, but organic already amplifies ad spend significantly (94k total downloads vs directly attributed installs). This ratio improves as density grows.
| CAC Driver | Effect on Blended CPI | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Paid UA (Apple Search Ads, Meta) | $2.09 (DE steady-state) | Live · proven |
| App Store organic (top charts, ASO) | $0 · scales with ranking | #1 CH · #43 DE |
| Word-of-mouth / social sharing | $0 · scales with transactions | Early |
| $SHACK referral rewards | $0 CPI · non-dilutive | Planned |
| Seller invites buyer (deal completion) | $0 · inherent to C2C | Organic |
| Content/SEO (listing pages indexed) | $0 · scales with inventory | Web planned |
Current Baseline · Pre-Density
LTV · Compounds with Network Effects
| Stage | Blended CAC | IAP LTV | Full LTV | LTV:CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (18k listings) | $2.09 | $0.05 | $0.05 | 0.03× |
| Post-raise (75k MAU) | $2.00 | $0.50 | $1.50 | 0.7× |
| Seed stage (150k MAU) | $0.80 | $1.26 | $3.50 | 4.4× |
The LTV Stack · Revenue Layers That Compound
LAYER 1 · LIVE
ID verification · $12 ARPU
Auction ads (promote listings) · $12 ARPU
Hoist (push to top) · $12 ARPU
Gamification (loot boxes, comic images) · $12 ARPU
LAYER 2 · POST-RAISE
Featured listings / top-of-feed · 2026+
Category spotlight ads · 2026+
LAYER 3 · AT SCALE
Third-party ads (brands, retailers)
Collectible tokenisation · mint fee + secondary royalties
Financing / buy-now-pay-later · rev share
Premium seller subscriptions · analytics, bulk tools
Data & insights licensing · pricing data, trend signals
PRE-DENSITY (NOW)
100% paid · $2–3 CPI · 0.6% IAP conversion · no shipping fees · $0.07 revenue per install · LTV:CAC = 0.03×
POST-NETWORK EFFECTS
$2–3 CPI still works · organic share growing · 1-unit auctions driving buyer pull · 3–5% IAP conversion · shipping + ads + tokenisation · $5–10+ LTV · LTV:CAC > 3×
CAC Detail
Paid acquisition across multiple channels (Apple Search Ads, Meta, TikTok, X) is already amplified by organic. Total downloads reached 94k, significantly exceeding directly attributed installs | indicating strong organic amplification of ad spend that will accelerate as network effects grow.
CPI by Market
Derived Acquisition Metrics
Blended CPI of $4.60 reflects early CH spend at higher CPIs ($9.50 peak Aug 2025) before the pivot to DE. Current DE steady-state is $2–3. Post-raise budget of $500K targets ~250K installs in Germany at $2–3 CPI. At Vinted-like organic ratios (70%+ organic at scale), effective CPI approaches zero on marginal installs.
Blue Sky · Path to $1–2T
What would it take for Shack to become a $1–2 trillion company in 10 years? This section models the financing roadmap from pre-seed through IPO (~2036), and the path to protocol-scale economics by ~2040. The scenario assumes Shack becomes the dominant global protocol for peer-to-peer exchange of atoms (physical goods), bits (digital goods), and time (services) | monetised primarily through seller advertising at high margins. Shack is already live in four markets (CH, DE, AT, US) | this model is about scaling, not launching.
Valuation Trajectory · $6M → $1–2T
10-year illustrative path · log scale
Financing Roadmap · ~$910M Total Capital
| Round | Year | Raise | Post-Money | EV/Rev | MAU | Revenue | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Seed | 2026 | $1M | $6M | n/m | 75k | <$1M | DACH (US live) |
| Seed | 2027 | $4M | $30M | 15× | 300k | $2M | DACH |
| Series A | 2029 | $25M | $200M | 13× | 2M | $15M | EU-5 + US |
| Series B | 2031 | $80M | $1B | 12× | 10M | $80M | Pan-EU + US |
| Series C | 2033 | $200M | $5B | 14× | 40M | $350M | EU + Americas |
| IPO (Yr 10) | 2036 | $600M | $40B | 13× | 150M | $3B | Global |
| At Scale | ~2040 | — | $1–2T | 25–40× | 400M+ | $40–50B | Protocol |
Revenue CAGR between rounds: 174% → 131% → 109% → 109% → 71%. Consistent deceleration from hyper-growth to mature growth. 2-year spacing between all private rounds; ~4 years of post-IPO compounding to reach protocol scale.
Financing Roadmap · ~$910M Total Capital
Capital raised per round + cumulative
What Must Be True
1. Win DACH first | prove density-driven network effects in a single market before expanding. 300k MAU. Seller ads generate first meaningful revenue.
2. Atoms, bits, and time live | all three categories (physical goods, digital goods, services) trading P2P from launch. Each category creates high-intent seller ad demand.
3. EU-5 + US scaling | replicate the DE playbook in FR, ES, IT, NL. Scale the existing US presence with localised AI listing + local ad spend. 2M MAU, $15M ARR.
4. Ad engine inflection | seller advertising becomes primary revenue driver at 60%+ gross margin. 10M+ MAU, $80M+ ARR. Unit economics cross LTV:CAC > 5×.
5. Global protocol + IPO | Shack lists publicly at ~$40B. 150M MAU, $3B revenue. Post-IPO: 4 years of 70-90% growth compound toward $1T+ as atoms, bits, and time trade globally.
Revenue Model at $1–2T
At protocol scale (~2040): 400M+ MAU trading atoms, bits, and time across $250–400B GMV annually. Seller advertising is the primary revenue engine | every seller has direct ROI incentive to promote (more bids → higher sale price), creating a self-reinforcing ad flywheel at 60%+ gross margin.
ARPU build-up · ~$100/user/year at scale
Comparable Trajectories
C2C Peers
Aspirational
eBay proved C2C auctions + seller ads at scale. Vinted proved 0% seller fees + ad monetisation in Europe. Shack's bet: expand the C2C model beyond atoms (physical goods) into bits (digital goods) and time (services) | becoming the global P2P exchange protocol.
Scenario Analysis
Pre-seed entry at $5M pre-money prices the option on the full outcome distribution. Even partial execution delivers venture-scale returns.
MOICs assume $1M at $5M pre-money, ~80% dilution through IPO → ~3.3% residual stake. Actual returns depend on pro-rata, liquidation prefs, and secondary sales.
Key Risks
Execution: Pre-seed team scaling to 200M MAU requires exceptional hiring and operations across 5+ funding rounds.
Competition: eBay ($30B), Vinted ($5B), FB Marketplace (1B+ users), and regional incumbents all compete for C2C share.
Category leap: Bits and time are adjacent but different markets. User behavior and trust models may not transfer from physical goods.
Ad saturation: Seller ad ROI must remain positive at scale. Over-monetisation risks buyer experience and trust.
Capital: ~$910M total capital requires 5 successful raises over 10 years. Any funding gap stalls growth.
Pre-Seed Returns by Exit
$1M at $5M pre-money (16.7% initial). Progressive dilution from ESOP grants, follow-on rounds, and secondary.
Methodology
Methodology: All spend converted to USD at mid-market rates (1 CHF = $1.29 · 1 EUR = $1.04). Billing cycle: 22nd prior month – 21st current month, settled end of month. Development invoices attributed to work month, not payment month.
MAU from Firebase; downloads from App Store Connect (all markets combined). IAP revenue from RevenueCat.
Active listings (18,773 total: 12,802 CH · 5,061 DE · 744 AT) from backend, geo-attributed via geohash. Total listings: 41,366 by 11,304 unique listers.
Orders created (1,725) from backend, represents orders initiated. Shack does not charge a take rate | the marketplace is free to transact. Revenue generated through in-app purchases (ID verification, auction ads, Hoist, gamification). Verified users (31,482) via Apple Sign-In; CH/DE split estimated 65%/33%, remainder AT + US.