Pitch

Global P2P (Re)Commerce Platform

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Traction

Capital-Efficient Cold Start

Top rank

Swiss App Store

Ahead of WhatsApp & TikTok · #43 Germany, #17 Austria

$100 → $2

Fully Loaded Blended CAC

50× reduction year-over-year

102K+

iOS Installs

Switzerland, Germany, Austria & US

34K+

Authenticated Users

Apple Sign-In verification

41K

Auctions Created

~19K live auctions on any given day

64% → 27%

Lister Retention

Week 1 → Week 6

Top cohorts retained 27% of listers six weeks after first listing.

$320K+

GMV

4,000+ Bids Placed

Differentiation

Why Shack is different

What is different

Why it matters

Fee-free transactions and zero ads

Compounds network effects faster than any incumbent can match.

1-tap AI listing

Unlocks dormant private supply at scale.

No professional retail

Private inventory as wedge; D2C follows at scale.

Package-less home pickup

Removes the last friction blocking casual sellers.

Horizontal marketplace

One app to sell anything.

Atoms, bits and time

Trade physical, digital and time in one place.

Auction-only

Kills chat-based negotiations.

Fiat and onchain rails

Global, permissionless trade and tokenization of collectibles.

Shack meme token

Anyone on earth can participate with aligned incentives.

Staged Conviction Model

What Probability/Conviction Is Needed for the Bet to Pay Off?

The first hurdle is the hardest. Set your conviction for each stage independently, assuming the previous one has been cleared.

YOUR TICKET SIZE

0.80% ownership

POST-MONEY VALUATION

$5M

FUTURE DILUTION

0.48% after dilution

SECTOR

Tutti.ch → Amazon

Quick Preset

Assign your conditional conviction per stage

Each input is P(clears this stage | previous already cleared). The chain multiplies into a cumulative probability of reaching each valuation.

CONDITIONAL CONVICTION

COMPARABLE

USERS

CUMULATIVE

P(reaches)

OUTCOME VALUATION

YOUR RETURNS

RETURN MULTIPLE

EV CONTRIBUTION

0 → $100M

Tutti.ch (~$100M) · 2M users

20x

Cumulative

Returns

$480K

$14K

Conditional Conviction

Tutti.ch (~$100M)

$100M+

$480K

20x

$14K

$100M → $1B

Depop (~$1B) · 30M users

200x

Cumulative

Returns

$4.8M

$48K

Conditional Conviction

if previous cleared

Depop (~$1B)

30M

$1B+

$4.8M

200x

$48K

$1B → $10B

Vinted (~$10B) · 100M users

2,000x

Cumulative

Returns

$48M

$192K

Conditional Conviction

if previous cleared

Vinted (~$10B)

100M

$10B+

$48M

2,000x

$192K

$10B → $100B

MercadoLibre (~$100B) · 120M users

20,000x

Cumulative

0.60%

Returns

$480M

$2.3M

Conditional Conviction

if previous cleared

MercadoLibre (~$100B)

120M

0.60%

$100B+

$480M

20,000x

$2.3M

$100B → $2T

Amazon (~$2T) · 310M users

400,000x

Cumulative

0.12%

Returns

$9.6B

$12M

Conditional Conviction

if previous cleared

Amazon (~$2T)

310M

0.12%

$2T+

$9.6B

400,000x

$12M

Potential Return

$9.6B

240,000x potential multiple

Expected Value

$14M

352x probability-weighted multiple

Potential Multiple

240,000x

P(reaches top)

0.12%

Expected Multiple

352x

There is a 5% chance the company clears the first hurdle. The Markov chain compounds that into a probability-weighted multiple of 352x, against a potential upside of 240,000x.

Break-even First Hurdle

0.01%

Required P(clears stage 1) for EV = ticket

Failure Probability

95%

Never clears even the first hurdle

Your First-Hurdle Conviction

P(reaches $100M)

Your First-Hurdle5%

Break-even0.01%

A 5% first-hurdle conviction compounds through the Markov chain into a 352x expected return on a potential 240,000x.

P(reaching $2T) unconditionally ≈ 0.12%. The bet is really about clearing the first stage.

Stages are sequential: clearing each one is conditional on the previous. The remaining probability mass is the implicit chance of failing before reaching the first hurdle.
Power-law outcomes dominate venture returns.

Shacks